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Initially, the former US president seemed to take a strong position regarding Ukraine. After issuing threats of "significant ramifications" last August should Putin carried on blocking truce talks, he eventually introduced considerable penalties on the Russian two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move seriously impacted the Russian leader's capability to fund his military invasion in Ukraine.

Yet, with his recently unveiled detailed peace initiative for the conflict, which was developed by US and Russian representatives excluding Ukraine's or European participation, he has seemingly gone back to his pro-Putin position.

Benefiting Invasion

The former president's initiative would essentially benefit Putin for invading Ukraine while putting the country's democratic system in danger. Although strong proclamations that "The nation's sovereignty will be affirmed", much of the proposal actually undermine that essential sovereignty. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would probably be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his business past, Trump seems to treat the situation in Ukraine as a basic land disagreement, as if handing Russia a part of Ukrainian land will satisfy the leader. However, Russia's invasion is not simply about occupying a charred area of deindustrialized area in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's clear goal to destroy it so it ceases to functions as an enticing standard for the Russia's population of the democratic governance that Putin's deepening dictatorship prevents them.

Territorial Surrenders

While freezing in position the currently split Ukrainian provinces of these areas, Trump's plan would compel Ukraine to surrender all of Donetsk region. Beyond benefiting Russia with area that its military have been failed to occupy in more than a ten years of conflict, this giveaway would leave Ukrainian military defenses dangerously undermined.

The area is the site of the nation's highly-touted "fortress belt", the entrenched defensive positions that are a key impediment to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine abandon these defenses, providing Russian forces a clear route to the capital should he eventually choose to resume the hostilities.

Armed Forces Limitations

Furthermore, in a action that would facilitate future hostilities more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would require the nation to cut the scale of its armed forces from their present 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Significantly, Trump's initiative sets no such restrictions on Russia's military.

In what appears as a accommodation to Russia's efforts to portray the nation's legitimate leadership as Nazis, the plan states: "All Nazi belief system and activities must be rejected and forbidden." Seemingly to underscore this point, it demands that "Ukraine will hold elections in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. However, Trump sets no requirement that Putin risk his dictatorship by allowing elections in Russia.

Security Guarantees

To be sure, the plan makes Russia pledge not to "enter bordering nations" and to "enshrine in regulation its stance of non-violence towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". Yet taking into account that the Russian leadership has broken comparable agreements in the previous instances – including the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government promised to honor the nation's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its former Soviet atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia agreed to a truce and a return of seized land in the region to Ukrainian control – for what reason should anyone trust Putin on this occasion?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on international protection assurances. While the plan warns of a "immediate coordinated defense action" if Russia resume its invasion, and includes that "Ukraine will receive reliable protection assurances", the specifics range from unclear to troubling. The proposal would not only prevent Ukraine Nato membership but also preclude Nato members from positioning military personnel on Ukraine's soil, thus precluding the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly led by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to prevent Russia from restoring his diminished military, restocking, and reinvading.

Global Concern

An additional parallel deal reportedly would grant the nation with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any later "major, planned, and continuous aggression" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "will be treated as an act of war jeopardizing the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." This implies a defense action. However in contrast to a capable Ukrainian military – Ukraine's most reliable protection against future Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the side agreement would hinge on the willingness of Western powers, such as Trump, to respond with force to Putin's hostilities, a response they have {not