Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.
Significant Barriers in the Selection Procedure
A number of figures on the party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any potential leadership challenge.
The party apparatus is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several sources also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.