Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
