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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It commonly acts as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or merely the greatest shock.

But the latest competition is distinctly different. The list of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and longtime strugglers rising together. In an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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